Azerbaijan vs Armenia: Azerbaijan and Armenia are two neighboring countries located in the South Caucasus region of Eurasia. The history and relationship between these two nations have been complex and, at times, contentious, primarily due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has been a source of tension for decades.
The epicenter of their discord lies in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a tinderbox that has ignited military confrontations, shaped geopolitical strategies, and tested the resilience of both nations.
This blog aims to delve into the multifaceted dimensions of the Azerbaijan-Armenia rivalry, examining critical aspects such as military power, historical conflicts, economic dynamics, and the burning question: Who emerged victorious in the struggle for regional supremacy?
Azerbaijan vs Armenia
Azerbaijan vs Armenia Military Power
Azerbaijan and Armenia engage in a delicate equilibrium, each nation meticulously honing its capabilities in response to the enduring tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan boasts a military budget of $3 billion, allocating 5.5% of its GDP to defense, while Armenia, with a military budget of $1.28 billion, allocates a slightly higher percentage at 6%. In terms of manpower, Azerbaijan maintains a robust force with 126,400 active personnel and an additional 330,000 in reserve, dwarfing Armenia’s 68,500 active personnel and 210,000 reservists.
The land forces reveal a significant asymmetry, with Azerbaijan’s 940 tanks and 2,363 armored fighting vehicles overshadowing Armenia’s 269 tanks and 610 armored fighting vehicles. Azerbaijan’s air forces, comprising 176 aircraft, including 5 fighter aircraft and 15 multirole aircraft, present a notable advantage over Armenia’s air fleet of 65 aircraft, including no fighter aircraft and only 4 multirole aircraft. Additionally, Azerbaijan’s naval capabilities, with 31 total vessels, including 4 submarines, contrast sharply with Armenia’s absence of naval assets. This disparity underscores the intricate military dynamics defining the longstanding conflict, where military strength intertwines with geopolitical strategies and historical grievances.
Azerbaijan vs Armenia Military Power Data Table
Here’s a table summarizing the military capabilities of Azerbaijan and Armenia:
| Category | Azerbaijan | Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Military Budget | $3 billion | $1.28 billion |
| Percent of GDP | 5.5% | 6% |
| Manpower | ||
| Active Personnel | 126,400 | 68,500 |
| Reserve Personnel | 330,000 | 210,000 |
| Available for Military | 3,000,000 | 809,576 |
| Land Forces | ||
| Tanks | 940 | 269 |
| Armoured Fighting Vehicles | 2,363 | 610 |
| Total Artillery | 909 | 236 |
| Self-Propelled Artillery | 267 | 38 |
| Rocket Artillery | 323 | 103 |
| Air Forces | ||
| Total Aircraft | 176 | 65 |
| Fighter Aircraft | 5 | 0 |
| Multirole Aircraft | 15 | 4 |
| Attack Aircraft | 11 | 15 |
| Helicopters | 97 | 45 |
| Navy | ||
| Total Naval | 31 | 0 |
| Aircraft Carriers | 0 | 0 |
| Destroyers | 0 | 0 |
| Frigates | 1 | 0 |
| Corvettes | 0 | 0 |
| Submarines | 4 | 0 |
Conflict Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts, particularly centered around the Nagorno-Karabakh region, have been marked by a complex web of historical, ethnic, and geopolitical factors. Here’s an overview of the key conflicts:
Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994):
- The conflict began in the late 1980s when the predominantly Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous region within Azerbaijan, sought reunification with Armenia.
- Amidst rising tensions and calls for independence, violence erupted, leading to a full-scale war in 1992.
- The war resulted in significant displacement of populations, with both sides accusing each other of atrocities.
Ceasefire and Status Quo (1994-2020):
- The conflict was frozen in 1994 with a ceasefire brokered by Russia. Nagorno-Karabakh remained under the de facto control of ethnic Armenians.
- International efforts, led by the OSCE Minsk Group (co-chaired by Russia, France, and the United States), aimed at finding a peaceful resolution, but a final settlement proved elusive.
Four-Day War (April 2016):
- Tensions flared in April 2016 when both sides engaged in a brief but intense conflict, known as the Four-Day War or April War.
- The clashes resulted in casualties on both sides but did not lead to significant changes in the status quo.
2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War:
- The most significant escalation occurred in September 2020, leading to a 44-day war that fundamentally altered the territorial control in the region.
- Azerbaijan, with a more modernized military and strategic support from Turkey, gained the upper hand and recaptured several territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.
- The conflict concluded with a Russia-brokered ceasefire in November 2020, leaving Azerbaijan in control of gained territories.
Post-Conflict Dynamics:
- The 2020 ceasefire agreement included provisions for the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces to monitor the situation and facilitate the return of displaced people.
- The conflict’s aftermath has seen challenges related to the return of refugees, the establishment of a lasting peace, and ongoing negotiations regarding the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan officially reported that from 1994 to September 2020, just before the onset of the 2020 conflict, 398 of its soldiers and 31 civilians lost their lives. In contrast, the Caspian Defense Studies Institute NGO provided different figures, stating that between 1994 and 2016, a period spanning over two decades, 1,008 Azerbaijani soldiers and over 90 civilians were reported to have been killed. These contrasting figures highlight discrepancies in the official and NGO-reported casualty counts, underlining the challenges in accurately documenting the human toll of conflicts in the region during that time frame.
| Year | Armenia | Azerbaijan | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | N/A | N/A | 30 soldiers |
| 2009 | N/A | N/A | 19 soldiers |
| 2010 | 7 soldiers | 18 soldiers | 25 soldiers |
| 2011 | 10 soldiers | 4+ soldiers, 1 civilian | 14+ soldiers, 1 civilian |
| 2012 | 14 soldiers | 20 soldiers | 34 soldiers |
| 2013 | 7 soldiers | 12 soldiers | 19 soldiers |
| 2014 | 27 soldiers, 6 civilians | 37 soldiers, 2 civilians | 64 soldiers, 8 civilians |
| 2015 | 42 soldiers, 5 civilians | 64 soldiers | 77 soldiers, 5 civilians |
| 2016 | 108–112 soldiers, 9 civilians | 109 soldiers, 6 civilians | 217–221 soldiers, 15 civilians |
| 2017 | 22 soldiers | 19 soldiers | 41 soldiers |
| 2018 | 5–7 soldiers | 6 soldiers | 11–13 soldiers |
| 2019 | 4 soldiers | 6+ soldiers | 10+ soldiers |
The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts have left an indelible mark on the region, shaping the geopolitical landscape and affecting the lives of countless individuals. The quest for a comprehensive and lasting resolution remains an ongoing challenge with global implications.
Who Won?
The question of who “won” in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts, particularly the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, is complex and depends on the perspective from which it is examined. In the context of the 2020 war, Azerbaijan is often considered to have achieved significant military gains, reclaiming territories around Nagorno-Karabakh that had been under the de facto control of ethnic Armenians since the early 1990s.
Key points include:
- Territorial Changes: Azerbaijan, with a more modernized military and support from Turkey, regained control over strategic areas, including the cities of Shusha and Hadrut, as well as parts of the internationally recognized Nagorno-Karabakh region.
- Strategic Importance: The territorial gains by Azerbaijan were of considerable strategic importance, impacting transportation routes and altering the geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus region.
- Ceasefire Agreement: The conflict concluded with a Russia-brokered ceasefire in November 2020. While this brought an end to active hostilities, it did not address the long-term status of Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving certain aspects of the conflict unresolved.
However, it’s important to note that the concept of “winning” in conflicts with deep historical and ethnic roots is nuanced. The aftermath of the war has brought challenges, including the displacement of populations, issues related to the return of refugees, and ongoing negotiations on the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
In international relations, the focus often shifts towards achieving lasting peace, reconciliation, and addressing the humanitarian and socio-economic consequences of the conflicts rather than a simplistic notion of victory or defeat.
